By
HOPE YEN, JOSH BOAK and
CHRISTOPHER RUGABERAssociated Press
WASHINGTON
President Donald Trump exaggerated his role in boosting U.S. economic
growth, falsely claiming full credit for positive economic news and
inaccurately declaring a “historic” turnaround.
The statements capped a week of mystifying assertion in which Trump
also invented history by saying he won the women’s vote in the 2016
election, saw progress with North Korea that isn’t evident to his top
diplomat and boasted of “success” and “record business” in U.S. health
care programs that have yet to start.
A look at the claims:
2016 ELECTION
TRUMP: “I did win that women’s vote, didn’t I? Remember, they said,
‘Why would women vote for Trump?’ Well, I don’t know, but I got more
than she did. That’s pretty good.” — remarks Thursday in Granite City,
Ill.
THE FACTS: No, he didn’t. About 54 percent of women nationally voted
for Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to exit polls, compared
with Trump’s 41 percent.
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HEALTH CARE
TRUMP, on a health insurance option for small businesses and
self-employed people: “I hear it’s like record business that they’re
doing. We just opened about two months ago, and I’m hearing that the
numbers are incredible. Numbers of people that are getting really,
really good health care instead of Obamacare, which is a disaster.” —
remarks Thursday in Peosta, Iowa.
THE FACTS: The Trump administration’s new health insurance option
isn’t producing “record business,” because a roll-out of the plans
doesn’t begin until September.
Even after the plans take effect, their impact is expected to be somewhat limited.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates a modest impact
of 4 million people who will be covered by the association plans within
five years. That’s compared with nearly 160 million who are covered by
job-based insurance, the 12 million eligible for expanded Medicaid under
the Affordable Care Act, also known as “Obamacare,” and the 10 million
in the ACA’s private insurance markets.
TRUMP: “We’re greatly expanding telehealth and walk-in clinics so our
veterans can get anywhere, at any time, they can get what they need,
they can learn about the problem and they don’t necessarily have to
drive long distances and wait. It’s been a very big success.” — remarks
Tuesday to Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Kansas City, Missouri.
THE FACTS: A new benefit that would give the nation’s veterans access
to commercially run walk-in clinics is not a success at all, because it
hasn’t started.
It won’t begin for another year and the care won’t always be freely
provided “anywhere, at any time.” Only veterans who have used VA health
care services in the previous two years would be able to get care at the
private walk-in clinics. After two visits, veterans could be subject to
higher co-payments charged by the VA.
TRUMP: “We passed Veterans Choice, the biggest thing ever. ... It has
got to be the biggest improvement you can have. So now if you can’t get
the treatment you need in a timely manner, people used to wait two
weeks, three weeks, eight weeks, they couldn’t get to a doctor. You will
have the right to see a private doctor immediately, and we will pay for
it.” — remarks Tuesday.
THE FACTS: The care provided under the Choice program is not as
immediate as Trump suggests, nor is it likely to be the “biggest thing”
ever. Currently only veterans who endure waits of at least 30 days for
an appointment at a VA facility are eligible to receive care immediately
from private doctors at government expense, a standard that the VA is
frequently unable to meet.
Under a newly expanded Choice program that will take at least a year
to implement, veterans will still have to meet certain criteria before
they can see a private physician.
A recent report by the Government Accountability Office found that
despite the Choice program’s guarantee of providing an appointment
within 30 days, veterans waited an average of 51 to 64 days.
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ECONOMY AND TRADE
TRUMP: “We’ve accomplished an economic turnaround of historic proportions.” — remarks Friday on a new economic report.
THE FACTS: That doesn’t square with the record. Trump didn’t inherit a fixer-upper economy.
The U.S. economy just entered its 10th year of growth, a recovery
that began under President Barack Obama, who inherited the Great
Recession. The data show that the falling unemployment rate and gains in
home values reflect the duration of the recovery, rather than any major
changes made since 2017 by the Trump administration.
While Trump praised the 4.1 percent annual growth rate in the second
quarter, it exceeded that level four times during the Obama presidency.
But quarterly figures are volatile and strength in one quarter can be
reversed in the next. While Obama never achieved the 3 percent annual
growth that Trump hopes to see, he came close. The economy grew 2.9
percent in 2015.
The economy faces two significant structural drags that could keep
growth closer to 2 percent than 3 percent: an aging population, which
means fewer people are working and more are retired, and weak
productivity growth, which means that those who are working aren’t
increasing their output as quickly as in the past.
Both of those factors are largely beyond Trump’s control.
TRUMP: “One of the biggest wins in the report, and it is, indeed a
big one, is that the trade deficit — very dear to my heart because we’ve
been ripped off by the world — has dropped.” — remarks Friday.
THE FACTS: Trump is correct that a lower trade deficit helped growth
in the April-June quarter, but it’s not necessarily for a positive
reason.
The president has floated plans to impose import taxes on hundreds of
billions of dollars of foreign goods, which has led to the risk of
retaliatory tariffs by foreign companies on U.S. goods.
This threat of an escalating trade war has led many companies to
increase their levels of trade before any tariffs hit, causing the
temporary boost in exports being celebrated by Trump.
Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial, said the result
is that the gains from trade in the second quarter will not be repeated.
TRUMP: “We’re having the best economy we’ve ever had in the history
of our country.” — remarks Thursday in Granite City, Illinois.
THE FACTS: This is not the best the U.S. economy has ever been.
The unemployment rate is near a 40-year low and growth is solid, but
by many measures the current economy trails other periods in U.S.
history. Average hourly pay, before adjusting for inflation, is rising
at about a 2.5 percent annual rate, below the 4 percent level reached in
the late 1990s when the unemployment rate was as low as it is now.
Pay was growing even faster in the late 1960s, when the jobless rate
remained below 4 percent for nearly four years. And economic growth
topped 4 percent for three full years from 1998 through 2000, an annual
rate it hasn’t touched since.
TRUMP: “The Canadians, you have a totally closed market ... they have
a 375 percent tax on dairy products, other than that it’s wonderful to
deal. And we have a very big deficit with Canada, a trade deficit.” —
remarks Thursday in Peosta, Iowa.
THE FACTS: No, it’s not closed. Because of the North American Free
Trade Agreement, Canada’s market is almost totally open to the United
States. Each country has a few products that are still largely
protected, such as dairy in Canada and sugar in the United States.
Trump also repeated his claim that the U.S. has a trade deficit with
Canada, but that is true only in goods. When services are included, such
as insurance, tourism, and engineering, the U.S. had a $2.8 billion
surplus with Canada last year.
TRUMP: “Veterans’ unemployment has fallen to the lowest level in
almost 18 years. ... And I’ll guarantee, within a month or two months,
that 18 will be even a much higher number.” — remarks Tuesday at VFW
convention.
THE FACTS: This boast is based on outdated numbers.
The veterans’ unemployment rate was 3.3 percent in June, a low rate
historically, but that is still above the 2.7 percent rate in October,
which was the lowest in nearly 17 years.
Veterans’ unemployment has fallen mostly for the same reasons that
joblessness has fallen for everyone else: strong hiring and steady
economic growth for the past eight years.
The vets’ unemployment rate peaked at 9.9 percent in January 2011,
then fell by more than half to 4.5 percent by the time Trump was
inaugurated in January 2017. Since then, it has fallen an additional 1.2
percentage points.
Trump won’t be able to get to a higher number than 18 years, as he promises to do, because the data only go back to 2000.
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NORTH KOREA
TRUMP: “We’re also pursuing the denuclearization of North Korea and a
new future of prosperity, security, and peace on the Korean Peninsula
and all of Asia. New images, just today, show that North Korea has begun
the process of dismantling a key missile site. And we appreciate that.
We had a fantastic meeting with Chairman Kim, and it seems to be going
very well.” — remarks Tuesday.
THE FACTS: Trump’s assessment that his administration’s plan to
dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons is “going very well” is not
fully shared by his own secretary of state, Mike Pompeo. In fact, Pompeo
acknowledged this past week that the North is still producing fissile
material for nuclear weapons.
Trump made his remarks after the North Korea-focused 38 North website
released recent satellite imagery that seems to show dismantlement
underway at Sohae.
But Pompeo sounded a note of caution. He said that while such a step
would be in line with the pledges that Kim made to Trump at the June 12
summit in Singapore, it would have to be confirmed by international
inspectors.
Analysts say dismantling a few facilities at the site alone won’t
realistically reduce North Korea’s military capability or represent a
material step toward denuclearization.
Indeed, at a Senate hearing Wednesday, Pompeo acknowledged that North
Korea continues to produce fuel for nuclear weapons despite Kim’s
pledge to denuclearize. Pompeo said there was “an awful long way to go”
before North Korea could no longer be viewed as a nuclear threat.
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AMAZON AND MANUFACTURING
TRUMP: “The Amazon Washington Post has gone crazy against me ever
since they lost the Internet Tax Case in the U.S. Supreme Court two
months ago. Next up is the U.S. Post Office which they use, at a
fraction of real cost, as their ‘delivery boy’ for a BIG percentage of
their packages...” — tweet July 23.
THE FACTS: He’s wrong to suggest that the U.S. Postal Service
delivers packages for Amazon below cost. Federal regulators in fact have
reviewed the Amazon contract with the Postal Service each year and
determined it to be profitable.
Trump is upset with Amazon because its founder, Jeff Bezos, owns The
Washington Post, which Trump has labeled “fake news” after the newspaper
reported unfavorable developments during his campaign and presidency.
While the Postal Service has lost money for 11 years, package delivery, a bright spot, is not the reason.
Boosted by e-commerce, the Postal Service has enjoyed double-digit
increases in revenue from delivering packages, but that hasn’t been
enough to offset pension and health care costs as well as declines in
first-class letters and marketing mail. Together, letters and marketing
mail make up more than two-thirds of postal revenue.
Amazon sends packages via the post office, FedEx, UPS and other
services, and has taken steps toward becoming more self-reliant in
shipping.
TRUMP: “On the South Lawn, you have the space capsule. And every part
is made right here, in America.” — remarks July 23 at Made in America
event.
THE FACTS: Trump neglects to mention a key detail: NASA’s Orion crew
capsule, one of the star products at the White House event celebrating
U.S. manufacturing, will ride through space thanks to Europe.
With its four solar-array wings, the European Service Module supplies
propulsion, power and the essentials of life for the capsule’s space
travels and marks a departure for NASA.
“For the first time,” the agency says, “NASA will use a
European-built system as a critical element to power an American
spacecraft.” Airbus, Boeing’s prime competitor in commercial air travel,
leads an array of European companies that made the service module.
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