Analysis by Matthew Chance
At what was promoted as a “historic” presidential summit in Alaska, the stage was as dramatic as the mountains towering over Anchorage. Yet behind the pageantry, the meeting revealed deep tensions and strategic dilemmas that could reshape the war in Ukraine – and Europe’s security for years to come.
US President Donald Trump greeted Russian President Vladimir Putin with an applause-filled welcome, complete with red carpet honors and a flyover by American stealth bombers. The spectacle seemed designed to project strength, but for Putin it symbolized something far more meaningful: his return to the global stage after years of isolation. Indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, Putin nevertheless stood shoulder-to-shoulder with a US president who referred to him as a friend.
Inside the press room at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, expectations of a joint news conference quickly evaporated. Instead, reporters absorbed the growing sense that Trump was signaling a fundamental shift in US policy. One conservative correspondent put it bluntly: “Trump wants to end Biden’s war. But Ukrainians and Europeans are standing in his way.”
That perspective underscores the broader danger for Kyiv. In pursuit of what he hopes will be a rapid peace agreement – and perhaps a legacy-making Nobel Prize – Trump appears increasingly aligned with Russian positions. Where Ukraine and its allies demand a ceasefire as a precondition for talks, Trump has shifted toward Moscow’s preference: skipping the truce and moving directly to negotiations, even as Russian forces maintain the battlefield advantage.
This recalibration has alarmed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the European leaders by his side. Their meeting with Trump will focus on the Kremlin’s demands for Ukraine to cede strategic territory in the Donbas – land annexed by Russia but not fully conquered. For Ukraine, surrendering these heavily fortified towns would amount to a security catastrophe, potentially opening the door to further Russian advances and undermining Europe’s stability.
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Yet rejecting Trump’s proposed deal is fraught with risks. If Kyiv and its European backers resist, they may be branded as obstacles to peace in Washington’s eyes. And with Trump eager to claim a diplomatic victory, he could retaliate by cutting off intelligence support or halting military aid – lifelines for Ukraine’s defense.
From Moscow, the picture looks different. Even the fact that territorial concessions are being openly debated represents a strategic win. While Kyiv and its partners haggle over Donbas, the regions Russia has already seized remain largely absent from the conversation – consolidating Putin’s gains without further cost.
Another looming issue is the credibility of any American security guarantees. Promises of US protection against future Russian aggression will only be effective if Moscow believes Washington is willing to act. But with Trump signaling his desire to end US involvement, such assurances may carry little weight.
For Trump, the priorities seem clear: a swift resolution, economic opportunities, and a place in the ranks of world leaders who bend history to their will. European security is secondary. At the summit, this was underscored by Trump’s deference to Putin, allowing the Russian president to address the press first and even entertain the prospect of a Trump visit to Moscow.
Ultimately, the Alaska summit highlighted a troubling reality: it is Trump, not Putin, now steering the process. For Zelensky and Europe, the choices ahead are stark – accept painful compromises or risk losing Washington’s support altogether. Either way, the outcome will reshape the trajectory of the war, and Europe’s security, for years to come.
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